Analysis, Commentary & Analysis, Geopolitical Analysis, President Vladimir Putin

Project Ukraine Complete

Original:  DNR News
Translation by Alexander Fedotov / Editing by @GBabeuf


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Putin left the G20 summit without waiting for the end of the programme. Of course, the President of Russia has the right to sleep on his arrival in Moscow, all the more so as he had ‘to work on Monday’.

It is possible that Putin cannot sleep on the plane which flies for ‘eight hours to our Far East and another eight from there to Moscow’. It is hardly believable that the cabin of the leader of a superpower is not equipped with a bedroom—such an option exists even on ordinary run-of-the-mill business jets. For people who spend much of their lives in the air (often for many hours), crossing several time zones, this is not just whimsy, but a necessity. And it is impossible to assume that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Head of the Presidential Protocol did not inform him of the summit’s programme in advance.

Thus, Putin knew perfectly well when the summit would come to an end. In such cases the programme used to be served until the very end. It is impossible to imagine that the hosts prepared, planned and coordinated the event whereas the guests simply departed when it suited them. All the more so, as dinners and cultural events also are used for negotiations.

That is to say, the Russian president pointedly left the Summit without caring about even a more or less polite explanation of his actions. One could, after all, have said that the President had an illness; but the desire to sleep after a sixteen hour flight—such an explanation would have been insulting to the Australians, yet the insult was defiantly given.

What caused such a reaction from Vladimir Vladimirovich? Even if the Australian Prime Minister had not spent the whole week announcing his intention to aggressively question Putin about the Malaysian Boeing; even if the press-service of the Canadian Prime Minister had not leaked to the media his “fearsome” demand to withdraw from Ukraine; even if the Russian media, just in time for the Summit, had not miraculously “found” a photograph of a jet fighter shooting down the Boeing; even then, it would have been obvious that the main subject of negotiations between the Russian President and Western leaders had to be the Ukrainian crisis.

Actually, the only interest for Russia, in this respect, is the position of the USA. The rest of the West still only breathes and moves in the mode defined by Washington.

Considering the build-up of explosive social energy in a rapidly destabilised EU, the latter will not last long, although it remains for now. Since the USA are not giving Ukraine money and weapons, are not permitting them even to try to stabilise the situation in the country, by concentrating power in a single hand (firstly they did not allow Yatsenyuk to be elected president, then Poroshenko was denied a majority in the Rada and thus the ability to appoint his chosen candidate as Prime Minister), it has been clear for some months now that Kiev has been written off. That is to say, it would make sense to discuss with Washington the situation “after Ukraine”, as well as the problem of mutually financing the economic recovery and the disarmament of Nazi gangs.

What is Russia able to offer? Putin always leaves the possibility of face-saving for his opponent. Consequently, the Russian proposals had to be in line with Putin’s theses of February-March. Ukraine should be preserved as a state formation, but reorganised on a federal (in practice—on a confederal) basis. The West and Russia should jointly guarantee its full and comprehensive neutrality. The rights of the Russian population should be protected by amending the Constitution, including the introduction of official bilingualism.

putin04The problem of Crimea will be solved by reinstating a Ukrainian state which is already without it. Russia and the West would jointly bear the costs of restoring the Ukrainian economy, including through the cancellation of old bad debts, opening their markets to Ukrainian goods, reducing prices of critical imports, including energy, as well as granting financial assistance—in the form of either direct or highly concessionary loans.

Clearly, this would be only a soft form of transferring Ukraine to the Russian sphere of influence, however, the USA and EU could save face, focussing on the fact that they managed to ‘save’ the Ukrainian state from a loss of sovereignty, as well as on ‘confirmation’ of Ukraine’s neutral status.

Since Putin pointedly left the Summit early, we can say for sure: the USA rejected any compromise on Ukraine. Hence, in the coming days, a week at most, a full-scale war will begin on the entire territory of the vanishing state. This war will be conducted in two formats.

Not in vain has the Militia, through the months of truce, been continuously looking for (and finding) heavy armoured vehicles in the Donetsk steppes; been attracting and training thousands of volunteers, including those possessing the specific knowledge and skills to be able effectively to use modern technology. All eyewitnesses testify that the density of troops in the DPR/LPR reads ‘off the scale’ and that those troops are concentrated in a few groups with a strongly pronounced offensive formation. And these troops have been cherished—they have not been sent to the front. They should strike a deadly blow to the Kiev authorities that would at once bring down the front. This is the first format—the collapse of the front, followed by a gradual occupation of the territory (not just of Novorossiya, but the whole of Ukraine). But this will be a slow process, depending on the readiness of the Militia and of the regions.

The second format should bring the Central and Western regions into the desired degree of readiness (Novorossiya is already ready) That is a civil war within the Kiev authorities (Yatsenyuk against Poroshenko , Kolomoyskyi against all, the Nazis against the oligarchs, the Army against the National Guards, peasant “self-defence” against urban food expropriators of the “supply detachments”, etc.). This is the most terrible conflict, capable of rapidly decimating the population of Ukraine by twenty-five to thirty percent, and making those remaining willing to do anything just to stop the horror.

Putin tried to prevent this very horror, offering the West, needless for Russia, preservation of Ukraine under conditions of federalisation and neutrality. This very horror is being provoked by the USA. Actually, it is not being provoked—it has been provoked. The coup and civil war became inevitable in Ukraine two months before the parliamentary elections, when it became clear that Turchinov, Yatsenyuk and Avakov were going to the polls not alongside Poroshenko, but against him. The US has long been waiting for when the Kiev leaders and their Nazi-henchmen finally begin killing each other.

Studious Yatsenuk, obedient Avakov and Turchynov, now bereft of the last shreds of adequacy, are ready to start shooting. But their second-tier henchmen are still afraid. Most of the Army still stands for Poroshenko. To put it mildly, it is not friendly towards the Nazi volunteer battalions. The collapse of the front, which after the failure of the Australian negotiations became inevitable, eliminates this foothold. Moreover, Poroshenko, as the supreme commander, will lose his credibility in society and in the security agencies.

The US get what they want—a full-scale, bloody civil war in the Ukraine with the liquidation of the remnants of the economy and the state, and the collapse of communal and social services. The territory will be plunged into the Stone Age in a matter of days.

The USA is hoping that, having finally formed ‘the Ukrainian people’, it will forever separate Russia and Ukraine.  In addition, they know that the restoration of normal living conditions for the survivors will have to be done by Russia and the EU, which should tie up the resources of Moscow and Brussels, creating a competitive advantage for Washington.

These calculations are just as erroneous as the February-March attempt to forge an anti-Russian, Nazi battering ram out of Ukraine. Most of the personnel who are to form a ‘Ukrainian people’ will perish and will soon finally be lost on the fronts of the civil war. Those ‘leaders of public opinion’, who have been shaping a discourse of Russophobia in Ukraine in last twenty years, who are particularly lucky, will be able to emigrate to the West and quietly live out the rest of their days in obscurity. The majority will die, not least because the USA does not have any need of witnesses to its own crimes. Even that part of the people who still begin their mornings spitting in the direction of Moscow and prostrating themselves towards the West, after a short but effective blood-bath organised by pro-Western politicians under pro-Western slogans, and, most importantly, once the West has dissociated itself from the fate of Ukraine (soon it will be obvious to even the most euphoric Maidan-arbeiters), will hate the West for its betrayal (corresponding articles and blogs written by the most discerning Euro-integrators have already begun appearing in the Ukrainian mass-media).

putin02The remains of the population of Ukraine will meet the troops (either Novorossiyan or Russian) just as the Germans met the Red Army in 1945—lining up in the queue to the field kitchens and absorbing the new ideology with their porridge. We should not forget that a totalitarian society was built in Ukraine, and that totalitarian propaganda has one feature—people begin to love what they cursed yesterday as soon as the focus is changed.

Let me remind you that Ukraine was the most loyal republic of the USSR (even more loyal than RSFSR), and that in one stroke, after the declaration of independence, the vast majority of members of the CPSU (including Kuchma, Kravchuk and Yushchenko) suddenly became Ukrainian patriots and almost clandestine anti-communist fighters. The attitude of the people has changed just as quickly. Yesterday’s conscious builders of communism became no less conscious carriers of ideas of Ukrainisation—Russians, Jews, and even Tajiks became more hardened Ukrainians than most thoroughbred Ukrainians.

Thus, the USA’s refusal to compromise on Ukraine at the G20 Summit in Australia means a short, bloody nightmare for the population of that already former-state, followed by the accession of the territory to Russia.

The sense in retaining formal sovereignty has disappeared completely and utterly. In principle, there is no point even in sharing territory with the neighbouring EU countries (Poland, Romania and Hungary).  Giving Banderite Galicia to Poland would now only serve as a subtle revenge. Yet it would be a pity to lose the territory, as the Banderites can be pushed out to Poland anyway.

Hopefully, for objective reasons, the Militia will move to the West slowly, so that whoever wants to will have time to run to the EU and join Europe in a person capacity.

In general, the shorter the liquidation period, the more lives can be saved, but that the bill for corpses, already above thirty thousand, will go to the hundreds of thousands—this is almost inevitable. Just as inevitable as two to three million emigrants to Europe. This, in the best case; at worst, Ukraine may lose up to a quarter of its pre-war population (and not all of the lost will be emigrants).

Well, everything should be paid for. For stupidity, immaturity, cookies from Nuland, envelopes from the US Embassy, grants and trips, many years of lies, the inadequacy of the political elite and the inability of the people to put forward a different elite—payment will be with blood, and more blood. Because the USA has decided. Project Ukraine closed.

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Rostislav Ishchenko, president of the Centre for System Analysis and Forecasting

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Discussion

22 thoughts on “Project Ukraine Complete

  1. When is Russia going to realize that the U.S. is not interested in compromise or negotiation, or in peace? Washington wants to force Moscow to fight in Ukraine, in order to damage economic relations with Europe and to isolate Russia. If Washington can’t get that objective, they will settle for putting the Ukraine into NATO and moving NATO forces and weapons right up to Russia’s doorstep (even further, considering that Novorussiya is and has always been Russian territory). Wake Up Russia! Defend Yourself!

    Liked by 1 person

    Posted by Michael Breslin | November 24, 2014, 22:30
    • Yeah you can’t negotiate with the US . I am an American and I know this to be true. Whether Russia invades Ukraine or not the west will still blame Putin for it. Damned if you do and Damned if you don’t . Might as well do.

      Liked by 1 person

      Posted by jay tea | November 24, 2014, 23:24
    • Negotiations had to start before Russia has taken Crimea and started military actions in east Ukraine. Now then sanctions started to bite they want to negotiate. Ukraine is not Russia’s business what can Russia negotiate about. A month ago Russia wasn’t even talking that it can influence any event’s in Ukraine and now they promising peace in Ukraine? Jokes… Putin didn’t have anything on a table for g20 anyway if to talk so. It seems like everybody became politicians with this Ukraine crisis….

      Like

      Posted by andrewgetwin | November 25, 2014, 03:33
      • Russia proposed negotiations over and over and over on the question of Ukraine joining the E.U., both before and after Yanukovich opted not to do it because if would come with a murderous austerity package. I can’t say “to his credit” because he’ll never get any from any quarter, but Yanukovich finally balked when he realized it included wiping out pensions.

        When I heard the Maidan was launched I laughed. “What do the signs say? ‘WE WANT TO BE GREECE?'”

        Like

        Posted by Cass | November 25, 2014, 05:08
      • Cass,
        I agree with your, Putin have done everything to have a political solution to the Ukraine crisis created by NATO. But will be good for Russia if Putin start to thing in a war scenario with NATO, because that is what they want, the overthrow of Putin and the destruction of Russia.

        All the bulling and sanctions are the prewar steps towards war.

        Like

        Posted by Obi-Juan | November 25, 2014, 11:15
  2. I hope you are wrong and if this is the plane of the US to allow the downfall of Ukraine and its people to be killed in a bloodbath without helping to fight against putin army ,I will feel my country has betrayed all US citizens and the Ukrainian peoples, to have done such dirty dead and betrayal

    Like

    Posted by Eric | November 24, 2014, 22:44
  3. Reblogged this on gerryhiles.

    Like

    Posted by gerryhiles | November 24, 2014, 23:21
  4. Maybe this IS the scenario that will unfold?? I really have no idea but will Russia be willing to gamble so much for this cause?
    and if this scenario does take place doesn’t the US win? I’ve always thought that the US wanted Ukraine as an ongoing battlefield that they could pepper with bombs to suit.
    This scenario would present them with that prize.
    Time was always the enemy of Ukraine and it’s leaders and maybe time has finally caught up with them?

    Liked by 1 person

    Posted by Vaughan Famularo | November 24, 2014, 23:22
  5. This is an interesting POV but I don’t see one side having the wherewithall to produce any more blood than they have been producing. Has the USA delivered, secretly, more than just the 3 mortar radar trucks that will be ready in mid-December? Especially if Obama wants to screw over the neocons with yet another embarrassment on their hands, the Ukraine forces will go into the final battles the way they are now.

    (My main worry is that right sector causes a massive nuclear reactor meltdown that poisons the South East)

    The only Ukrainians willing to fight are the 15,000 left in those volunteer battalions plus maybe another 15,000 remaining NG volunteers. That is not enough to do much damage to even 1% of the Ukrainian people, especially when they remain locked in a death grip with an equal number of rebels.

    There is no partisan buildup although there are now some battalions waiting in cities like Kharkov and Nikolaev in case the rebels break out and defeat the main part of the army. I will note that these men, ready to fight for their hometowns but not suicidally so, are not the fanatics one sees fighting tooth and nail for places like the Donetsk Airport, 600 miles from their hometowns.

    Aidar now fights while surrounded on 3 sides in Schastye and mostly blocked in Stanitsa Luganska. Russia may be playing cat and mouse with them but you can be sure that Poroshenko doesn’t mind that they probably won’t be coming back to Kiev to violently remove him from power. In fact, Poroshenko may be begging Putin to move faster on them and stop playing cat and mouse.

    The Donetsk Airport battle has reached a breakout stage and is turning out in favor of the rebels, as the remaining Cyborgs go home to Kiev as heroes for having held out so long (in reality they served as bait to attract more than a few suicide tank raids). Avdeevka will probably go the same way as Peski just did over the weekend. With Right Sector weakened and fighting a rear guard action back to Karlovki, Donetsk will be out of range of most artillery and the EU will still see the Minsk accords being adhered to.

    The Debaltsevo peninsula has been begging to be surrounded for two months. Very rarely in history has such a militarily insane position been held for so long. I don’t think those forces within are going anywhere. Azov in Mariupol can be blocked from going anywhere as well, especially if the oligarchs in Kiev don’t want them to go back to Kiev.

    Poroshenko has supposedly been sending all reserve armor and personnel into the fray. One big tank column is heading down towards the “Numbered Checkpoints” highway now, where oddsmakers can predict they will neither win nor return.

    So Poroshenko has seemingly deliberately lost his legions already. Obama is allowing these reserve columns to drive straight into oblivion.

    I don’t therefore see who will be around to create much bloodshed. The 4th Mobilization won’t have time to gather too many men. The third mobilization only got 8 thousand men?

    Theoretically there are thousands and thousands of Polish and other mercs in the Slavyank area who will make a rebel advance up through there a tough go. With low oil prices, is it even profitable now for the west to start shale drilling ops in Slavyansk now?

    But I see Russia trying to hold to the Minsk Agreement and stopping at Karlovki, Artemsk and Noviy Aidar. The neo-nazi unit members will throw themselves in waves to try to stop the rebels from taking even these modest objectives, which will appear to the Europeans as well within the Minsk agreement.

    If these Maidan battalions lose badly, the oligarchs can announce federalization and nobody among the Maidanites will have enough forces to go to Kiev to stop that. If you see government forces fighting Maidan forces, that battle will end quickly.

    Keep in mind that Kharkov and Odessa and several other big towns not inside the rebel area are already not flying the Ukrainian flag in key places.

    They are shooting for a smooth transition to a decentralized existence for the Ukrainian nation. A lot of Ukrainian patriots will start to see federalization as a face-saving thing.

    Like

    Posted by Anonymous | November 24, 2014, 23:25
    • The Polish die the same as other troops under Russian artillery. Being Polish doesn’t make you invincible. When is the last war they fought and won?
      The Russians will obliterate whatever and whoever is on the ground where they want to move and take.
      Why don’t you see NATO on the ground? Because Russia would obliterate them as easily as they did the Ukies.
      We had the Southern Cauldrons, and now there will be the Northern Cauldrons.
      Putin never messes around. Shoigu’s military will finish this war.

      Like

      Posted by Bull Durham | November 25, 2014, 06:02
  6. The U.S. wants Ukraine as part of her “nuclear first strike” capacity. If she can pack enough ballistic missiles into former SU countries, she can hope to catch a substantial number of Russian ICBMs on the launch pad or just launching, reducing the casualties from a Russian retaliatory strike to an acceptable number — acceptable to Neocons who have stronger stomachs than human beings.

    Like

    Posted by Cass | November 25, 2014, 01:55
  7. Kremlebot’s delirium

    Like

    Posted by Gala Gems | November 25, 2014, 02:46
  8. Are you people that stupid? If America wanted Ukraine in NATO or in its influence zone they would have done it in 1990 or so. But opposite US and Europe trusted in Russia and gained strong economic ties with Russia and there was even talks getting agreements between Russia and NATO for a coocooperation. It’s not Europe or NATO military present in Ukraine and not Europe or NATO annexed Crimea lying on the way, it’s not in Europe or US all tv and papers belong to government, it’s not Europe or US business and oligarchy in Ukraine. Putin must let Ukraine choose which way Ukrainian people want to go without propaganda and military intervention, without threatening with a gas Ukraine and Europe and destabilizing all Ukraine. It’s not Europe or US where is super high corruption and living standards are nearly unbearable. It’s not Europe or US stating nationalistic ideas and so on and on… So people wake up and don’t let be blinded with America’s foreign affairs somewhere in a midleast or about homosexuality and all that crap.

    Like

    Posted by andrewgetwin | November 25, 2014, 03:06
    • This “Talk of cooperation between NATO and Russia” you speak of was that pact that Gorbachev signed which he specifically stated that NATO should not advance even 1 inch eastwards. This talk (pact) you refer to was ultimately broken. Google it. Russia has on many many occasions tried to be friendly and rebuild ties with the Americans, which were coincidentally “rejected”. NATO, initially, was a DEFENSE alliance against USSR expansion, but the tables have turned, and now NATO is clearly an OFFENSIVE alliance doing the expanding, not Russia. This is known, by CFR’S jew-boy Brzezinski as “the Great Chess-game” which they dragged Russia into Afghanistan for. And incase you seem to have forgotten about Ukraine’s 2004 Orange revolution (those infamous “colour revs” they love dishing out), they are finishing that now. I’m sure they would LOVE to drag Ukraine into their NATO sphere, just like they have with Poland. Don’t forget also; The yanks tried to build a missile defence system in Poland, then to point it at Russia’s border. Then that failure of a uprising in Georgia that Brzezinski’s CFR and all those American NGOs caused. and even now, with Syria.

      If you still can’t see it, then I will plainly spell it out for you – they are trying to surround Russia. It has always been the ultimate goal of these murderers to take Central Asia. They want to do to Russia what they did to Yugoslavia and Kosovo, that is, to break Russia down into seperate entities, and then conquer those one by one – destroy the enemy from within. They’ve been doing this for years.
      I am astounded at your ignorance to say NATO forces are not there – what was all that hype about Operation Trident then, where american personnel were being sent to “train” the Ukrainians in this war, and the fact they were in the Black Sea (which is basically considered tresspassing) just a few months ago – this has been reported on, or did you just not know this…?

      And about letting Ukraine choose its way – it already has. It is way too clear to see, why are you even mentioning this – the people of Crimea is an example. they overwhelmingly chose to reunite with Russia. It was Ukraine that tried to stop them from this choice, so telling Putin what to do is irrelevant. I think the fact that Poroshenko is prolonging this war is definitely not what the people wants or needs, but who asked them…? After all, they’re just useless chaff to these israeli-backed scum.
      Ukraine had a choice to get its coal from Australia, Africa (can’t remember which country), or Russia. Australia proved to be too expensive. Ukraine accused the African company from raising its prices tenfold, to which they responded in anger and refused to trade with Ukraine due to them possibly damaging their rep), so it left Russia. But of course, the arrogance of the Ukrainian politicians didn’t want Russian coal – until they got desperate, so they gave in. But Russia was delaying its deliveries (maybe as punishment for all the slander the Ukies have caused, who knows). And you can’t blame Russia for threatening to withhold trade with Europe and Ukraine – this is a good way for them to negotiate and even stop this war. EU and Ukraine is stupid for placing sanctions on the one country that has all the resources they rely on. Basically, Russia is anti-war, while the rest of Europe is pro-war, because, oh, that’s right, they’re NATO, the OFFENSIVE alliance.

      Next time, I suggest to you not call people stupid, when your own ignorance is beaming.

      Like

      Posted by Ariel | December 5, 2014, 17:24
  9. Babeuf, I wish I could believe you. But . . .

    I don’t see any way of de-nazifying Ukraine except depopulation. Three generations seem to have been taught to revere Bandera at their mothers’ knees and in their history classes.

    They don’t like to see swastika tattoos. They don’t vote for overt Nazis. But the culture seems to have assimilated the ideas for which the Swastika and the Wolfsangel are despised.

    Like

    Posted by Cass | November 25, 2014, 05:39
    • Cass,
      I disagree with you, could be a de-nazification of Ukraine and Europe with an alternative socio-economic system, that means a system without oligarchs. The bad thing is that Putin cannot be the political representative of such system, he represents Russian oligarchs, is for that reason so important the NovoRossia uprising, the rebellion is become sucessfull could sweep Russian, Ukraine and European oligarchs all together.

      Like

      Posted by Obi-Juan | November 25, 2014, 11:23
    • I’m just the editor. The opinions are the author’s, as with everything we post on here.

      Like

      Posted by babeuf79 | November 25, 2014, 20:26

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