Original: El Murid (Anatoliy Nesmeyan) LiveJournal
Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov
The latest round of sanctions imposed by the European Union has essentially put an end to any discussion about the possibility of an agreement with the West. Notwithstanding all the concessions and betrayal.
The very fact that Russia faltered in Ukraine and did not defend its national interests, abandoning the Donbass region and its people to the mercy of those bent on tearing them apart, and accepting loss of face on the part of the Russian leadership and frank betrayal—all this only convinced the West that it can dictate its will by continuing to increase the pressure.
It is difficult to tell what was it that the traitors promised to the President, but it is already obvious that they deceived him. There will be no reconciliation. The problem is that now the Western pressure has ceased to have a purely Ukrainian dimension. Sanctions and their tightening are aimed exclusively at fomenting a schism in the Russian elite, at infringing on the interests of one of its parts and at whipping up an early coup.
What is at stake now is no more and no less than the head of Putin himself—no other outcome will satisfy the West. Already after Crimea, the frightened Euro-American elite had resolved that there can be no dealing with Putin’s Russia and for that reason sanctioned the plans for his overthrow. For now—by means of a coup d’état at the hands of aggrieved and disadvantaged oligarchs. If that does not work—through a military conflict.
It appears that the Russian leadership understands this, and that yesterday’s regular exercises of the troops of the Eastern Military District, which required them to be brought to full combat readiness, is a demonstration of the fact that Russia is ready for such a development of the situation. The only question that remains is whether she is ready for betrayal.
The past three to four years have provided a wealth of material for the study of possible scenarios of war with Russia. Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Ukraine – these are countries where the West achieved its objectives through mutiny of one of the parts of the indigenous elite, following which it supported the arrival of democracy to these wild outskirts of civilization. In Libya this was facilitated by NATO’s bombers; in Egypt – by mass funding of terrorist groups from the pockets of western corporations in Qatar; in Yemen, the wager was placed on tribal leaders and on the launch of the “Al-Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula” project; in Ukraine – well, here, everything is right before our eyes.
In Syria, this scenario malfunctioned. The Syrian elite refused to betray Assad, as its interests are tied to Syria, and the business and the welfare of its members are based on a united and stable Syria. That is why individual traitors in the leadership of the country could not undermine its stability, and the West was forced to rely on the terrorists of Al-Nusra, ISIS, the Islamic Front, the Farouq Brigades, the Free Syrian Army, and many others. Now Obama is preparing to bomb the Syrian territory under the guise of fighting the Islamic State. There is no doubt that the range of the bombing campaign will extend much further, and that, if Russia overlooks the bombing of Ar-Raqqa, in one or two months Obama’s falcons will start bombing Damascus. If Russia does not arrange for immediate deliveries to Syria of Air Defence systems capable of taking down the American terrorists, we will be faced with a sharp aggravation of the situation in the south in addition to the problems in Ukraine.
Russia stands before the same choice—first we can expect a coup. Unlike Syria, a significant part of the contemporary Russian elite are common compradors that have nothing in common with the country other than the fact that it is from Russia itself that they pump their subcutaneous wellbeing. It is these people that their Western owners are now beginning severely to pressure, using sanctions as a whip so as to encourage them to organize a coup. And the longer they delay, the stronger and fiercer the sanctions will become.
However, the sanctions have yet another aspect to them—in the event the coup d’état fails, the West wants as much as possible to weaken the leading sectors of the Russian economy, so as to ensure that Russia is minimally ready when she faces the possible armed conflict. Speaking about the military conflict, we can now say with confidence that the ideas of George Friedman about using and unifying the wars in Iraq and Ukraine will become the basis of the military intervention against Russia. Whether this will be done through a war in Crimea or an armed conflict in Chechnya is a purely situational matter. It is certain that different scenarios are being formulated, and that they will be launched either immediately following the coup d’état attempt or synchronously therewith.
The events of the past few years have very clearly demonstrated that the West has wagered on the destruction of the existing world order. It is not satisfied with the emergence of new centres of power, which places it on the precipice of a civilizational catastrophe. The sweet life of the “golden billion” has always been premised on the slavish existence of the rest of the world, who worked for their masters. The new centres and growth points, the new associations of Third World countries that are gaining momentum make the concepts of neocolonialism worthless—and the West will go to war. To a large degree, it simply has no other choice.
The colour revolutions gave the United States and its allies an instrument, using which they expect to defeat their strategic rivals without bringing about direct confrontations that threaten total destruction. By spreading around the world, the cancerous tumour of democracy and human rights, in their Western interpretations, is preparing the groundwork for colour revolutions of varying degrees of ferocity.
The pressure of sanctions on Russia, which no one is any longer interested in stopping, transitions the level of confrontation to a qualitatively different state. Evidently, there is a certain point of no return, upon achieving which a rollback is no longer possible. There is a deep suspicion that we had already passed it, casually and imperceptibly. Most likely, this point can be considered to be Russia’s refusal to fight for Ukraine. The May of 2014, when quite inexplicably the people of the Donbass region were simply betrayed, can be considered such a point – the West received proof that it had the ability to force its interests. Who was it in the Russian elite and the state apparatus that exerted pressure on or deceived the Russian President – the latter knows best. But these are the same people that will stand behind the coup.
If we have entered the pre-war period, then the logic of our behavior must also become other than in peacetime. The slightest hint of the possibility of a coup must be eliminated. People who would betray and sell the country must be removed from power. They must be deprived of the tools of their influence. Then the West will be left with only the military option – a path that it fears. A path that affords it far fewer chance than a betrayal.