Key Information in Reverse Chronological Order
#15 – Dissecting the Fake Intercept Disseminated by SBU (Ukrainian Security Service)
Note: Half of the Post Translated; The Remaining Half is Speculative
Complete Original of the Post (in Russian) Can Be Found at Eugene-DF LiveJournal
In the disseminated intercept, the place from which the missile was allegedly launched is clearly indicated: the checkpoint at the settlement of Chernukhino.
Pay close attention at the Alleged Map of the MH17 Catastrophe.
As you can see, the distance from the point of launch to the point of the fall is 37 kilometres. At the same time, the elevation of the plane was 10-11 kilometres. For the Russian BUK M2 this distance is, in fact, achievable (although with a very important caveat discussed below).
However, Ukraine does not, and cannot, have modern digital high-tech Anti-Aircraft systems in its arsenal. What it does have, at best, is the older version BUK M1. The system itself is not too bad, and could even fit the stated distance. Except for the caveat that was mentioned.
The thing is that most short to medium range Anti-Aircraft systems work extremely poorly in a “pursuit” mode. There are a number of reasons for this, and I do not intend to belabor the point, but you can take it as an axiom that when the launch is made in “pursuit” of the target, the maximum distance of the launch that successfully hits the target is at least half of the advertised maximum distance (in reality, it even worse, but let’s leave aside the sad part). Accordingly, the real distance of a “pursuit” launch for BUK M1 is 16 kilometres. What’s more, the last 3 kilometres are purely “God willing” and “without guarantees.”
And, so, we have the background. Let’s see how the picture unfolds:
The launch is alleged to have been made from Chernukhino. The maximum distance of the launch is 16 kilometres. The aircraft fell between Snezhnoye and Torez. That’s 37 kilometres, which is 20 kilometres more than the maximum possible point at which the plain could have been hit. You know, even a plane with turned-off engines can’t glide like that. But the trouble is that the aircraft was not whole.
According to the pattern of the spread of fuselage fragments and bodies, the plane was ruptured practically with the first shot. Here it must be mentioned that the high-explosive/fragmentation warhead of the rocket has a mass of approximately 50 kilograms (by the way, Ukrainians have an outdated modification, which is only 40 kilograms).
Overall, that’s not too little; however, it must be understood that it detonates not when it sticks into an airplane, but when it is still at a certain, and fairly significant distance. Moreover, the main strike factor is not the blast wave, but far more significantly – the stream of fragments. These fragments are previously prepared rods (and in the earlier versions – little cubes, if I recall correctly). And yes, for a jet fighter, that, in itself, is more than sufficient.
However, here we are dealing with a huge airliner. Yes, one rocket will rip the casing, cause depressurization, and will kill a lot of passengers. But it will not break up the airliner into pieces. Given certain conditions, the pilots may even be able to land it. And, in fact, there have been precedents (to be provided in future posts). For example – the very same An-28, which is alleged to have been the first victim of a BUK system; even though it was done for, but the crew was able to successfully catapult out. Which, in some way, symbolizes. An An-28, by the way, is far smaller than a Boeing.
Nevertheless, this has relation to the next part of our analysis. For now, let’s accept as a fact the break-up of the aircraft in the air, at a significant height (which is, in essence, what was observed. Allow me to remind you: “fragments spread over a radius of 15 kilometres.” The key here is that this means the following: the aircraft (or, more precisely, the core of the aircraft) fell literally at the point where the rocket impacted it. Clarifying: as soon as the aircraft turned into a host of fragments of different mass, the separation of these fragments began due to air resistance and the difference in inertia. The densest fragment flew a further 3-6 kilometres, falling more and more steeply. The lightest – spread out and, due to gliding and air currents, fell somewhere within a 10 kilometre radius. The medium ones (primarily pieces of casing with high sail-effect and the victims’ bodies) – fell almost vertically.
In other words, the rocket caught up to the plane no closer than 25 kilometres away from Chernukhino. Which is absolutely impossible for a BUK system.
By the way, we can’t overlook the fact that, at maximum distances, BUK can be used only provided there is support from an external radar installation for location and guiding purposes. In other words, even if a rockets flies far, BUK’s mobile radar does not cover its entire distance.
Accordingly, if SBU’s video above is not fake, then, to our surprise, we discover that it was literally impossible for the aircraft to be shot down by the rebel’s BUK. By the way, what exactly this BUK was doing in Chernukhino with the Cossacks is pretty much inexplicable. It is 60 kilometres whether you go to Donetsk or to Lugansk from there, and this BUK would be unable to protect the skies over either of the key cities. Nor are there any hostilities in the area. It’s also strange for the Militia to expect enemy planes there – it’s not like the pilots are their own enemies to make such detours over the enemy’s territory, is it? Well, all right. As I already stated, let’s accept, for the moment, that the intercept is not fake.
And that is what is so strange here: SBU literally offers evidence that proves that that the Militia had no part in the shooting down of the Boeing! The fact that they blame themselves in the recording is quite understandable. Unlike the fascists, they have a conscience, which takes its toll until you are sure it was not you who did it.
Ok. But somebody did, in fact, shoot down the plane?
Of course it was shot down. And here we have another question: what if this recording is a falsification through and through? Then it had to have been prepared somehow? And then disseminated?
That’s when smoke starts to clear, and mirrors – to break.
That’s the problem with tricks.
#14 – An Industry Outlet Confirms Carlos (@spainbuca) as ATC at Borispol Airport in Kiev
Original: EturboNews (ETN Global Travel Industry News) – July 17, 2014
ETN received information from an air traffic controller in Kiev on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.
This Kiev air traffic controller is a citizen of Spain and was working in the Ukraine. He was taken off duty as a civil air-traffic controller along with other foreigners immediately after a Malaysia Airlines passenger aircraft was shot down over the Eastern Ukraine killing 295 passengers and crew on board.
The air traffic controller suggested in a private evaluation and basing it on military sources in Kiev, that the Ukrainian military was behind this shoot down. Radar records were immediately confiscated after it became clear a passenger jet was shot down.
Military air traffic controllers in internal communication acknowledged the military was involved, and some military chatter said they did not know where the order to shoot down the plane originated from.
Obviously it happened after a series of errors, since the very same plane was escorted by two Ukrainian fighter jets until 3 minutes before it disappeared from radar.
Radar screen shots also show an unexplained change of course of the Malaysian Boeing. The change of course took the aircraft directly over the Eastern Ukraine conflict region.
Some tweets received suggest this may have been a secret military uprising against the current Ukrainian president under the direction of formerly-jailed Prime Minister Timoshenko.
According to other rumors, the black box for this crashed Malaysian Airlines flight was taken by Donetsk separatists. A spokesperson for the rebel group said this black box would be sent to the Interstate Aviation Committee headquartered in Moscow.
The First Deputy Prime Minister of the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk, Andrew Purgin, stated that the flight recorders of the crashed aircraft will be transferred to Moscow for examination.
Sources say the Rebel group leadership hopes this would confirm the Ukrainian military actually shot down this aircraft. This was reported by the news agency Interfax-Ukraine.
ETN statement: The information in this article is independently confirmed and based on the statement of one airline controller and other tweets received.
#13 – A Brief Well-Made Presentation Regarding Ukraine’s Manufactured Evidence
Video: Paul J. Watson – “Evidence to Frame Russia For MH17 Shoot Down Fabricated?”
#12 – Analysis from an Aerodynamics/Physics Standpoint – Ukrainian Army Responsible
RESUME OF ANALYSIS: What all this means is that if a BUK rocket was launched from the territory controlled by the Militia, the Boeing would have fallen much further to the south-east – i.e. will into the Russian territory. Otherwise, there would have been not time to detect the aircraft, perform electronic capture and launch the rocket. If this was a BUK, and not a jet fighter, then it is most likely that the launch was made from the territory controlled by the Ukrainian army, and the rocket was sent “chasing after” the airplane.
Original: 4yma3iy LiveJournal
I am not an aerodynamics specialist. I am a radioelectronics expert. Nevertheless, I specialize in aviation. If there are aerodynamics specialists here, please critique away.
Initial Data: the plane’s elevation is 10,000 metres, speed is 900 km/h (or 250 m/s).
Judging from the photos from the site of the crash, where all the pieces lie together in one place, it appears that the plane fell as a whole (i.e. some fragments may have broken off, but the fuselage remained intact). So, the aircraft well “as one piece” – i.e. it did not break apart in the air.
Accordingly, it must be considered as one body, the speed of which has a very large dependence on air resistance, particularly given the design features and its intended use.
The time of a body’s free fall:
T = sqrt(2h/g)
Thus, from a height of 10,000 metres, a body will fall:
T = sqrt(2*10000/9.8) = 45 second – HOWEVER! – this applies only in vacuum.
At the same time, the downward velocity when falling from this height is:
V = sqrt(2gh)
This speed will equal 442 m/s – HOWEVER! – this, once again, applies only in vacuum.
In real-life conditions a fall happens with a certain maximum speed, at which the force of air resistance becomes equal to the force of gravity. For a person’s body, for instance, this speed is equal to 40 m/s. For a bullet, this speed is approximately 50 m/s (depending on form and mass). Given the plane’s mass and its enormous size, let’s take this speed to be 40 m/s.
Accordingly, the plane would have been falling approximately 250 second – let’s round it off to 4 minutes, which is quite close to what happened.
Let’s accept that the reduction of horizontal speed also occurs pursuant to a linear equation with certain acceleration.
The vector of the force of front air resistance is directed against the speed of movement, and its magnitude is proportional to characteristic area S, density of the environment ρ, and speed V squared:
For the aerodynamically well-designed body of an aircraft, Cx < 0.3
Let’s calculate the force of air resistance at the speed of 250 m/s
The mass of Boeing 777 = 300 ton (in equipped state)
It means that horizontal deceleration due to air resistance would be 590/300 = 2 m/s^2 – just as I suspected (however, this is at the maximum speed).
Now, let’s take our favourite highschool equation:
Given the nonlinear nature of deceleration, divide it in half – and we get 31 kilometres.
Let’s consider the strike distance of the rocket. Maximum strike distance of AGM-86 ALSM rocket:
- At the height of 30 m – 20 km
- At the height of 6,000 m – 26 km
- The chance of a successful strike: 0.6 – 0.8
This distance should not be mistaken for the distance of detection.
Map: Yellow Pin to the West = Estimated Rocket Launch Location; Yellow Pin To the East = Crash Site
What all this means is that if a BUK rocket was launched from the territory controlled by the Militia, the Boeing would have fallen much further to the south-east – i.e. will into the Russian territory. Otherwise, there would have been not time to detect the aircraft, perform electronic capture and launch the rocket.
If this was a BUK, and not a jet fighter, then it is most likely that the launch was made from the territory controlled by the Ukrainian army, and the rocket was sent “chasing after” the airplane.
#11 – Changing MH17 Route From July 14, 2014 to July 17, 2014
Screenshots of Flight Paths of MH17 for July 14-17, 2014
#10 – Eyewitness Recounts a Fighter Jet and 3 Explosions When MH17 Was Shot Down
Audio Recording Link: Cassad Net
Transcript of the Eyewitness Phone CallI
have a single sheet of paper that fell from the plane, with fresh blood – you can see it. Baggage also fell, further, in the area of the Petropavlovka settlement – there are fragments there. There is a group in VKontakte that already posted photos with pieces from the Boeing. Also, beyond Rassypnoye, near Terrikon, there are corpses. There were people there, and they saw it all.
I saw, personally, that there were 3 explosions. The first, the second and the third. So, after the first explosions I went up on the roof and saw that a plane was falling – it was already almost at the ground. There was an explosion, a black cloud, and two parachutists were descending – one was descending on his parachute on the wing. The second was flying down very fast – like a stone. And that is what I saw.
However, at that very same moment, a jet fighter was departing in the direction of Debaltsevo. It was over Rassypnoye and was flying toward Debaltsevo. How I understood it.
#9 – 11:53-12:40 – July 18, 2014 – Information Regarding the Boeing from Igor Strelkov
– regarding Boeing 777, Flight MH17:
Igor Strelkov: According to the information received from the people who collected the corpses, a large number of the corpses are “not fresh” – these are people who died a few days ago. I cannot vouch for complete accuracy of this information – of course, we will have to wait for conclusions from forensic specialists.
– “Somebody of course must have been piloting this plane, which, to boot, would be impossible to leave. The theory that the plane was full of dead people is, of course, breathtaking; however, it does not seem to make sense.”
Igor Strelkov: First of all, not all the people in the plane were dead prior to the fall.
Second, a large quantity of medication, including blood serum and so forth, was found in the airplane, which is not characteristic of a regular airliner. It looks like there was some kind of special medical cargo on board.
Third, I do not insist on anything (for now). It’s just that only moments ago I spoke with two individuals who personally gathered the corpses after the crash (both of them are from Shakhtersk and arrived at the scene less than half an hour after the catastrophe). I am writing exactly what they told me. They emphasized that a large number of the corpses were “completely bloodless” – it’s as if their blood clotted long before the catastrophe. They also remarked that there was an overwhelming putrid corpse stench, which was also noted by many locals – a smell like that could not have formed in half an hour in any weather, let alone in the cloudy, temperate weather we had yesterday.
Fourth, while I am usually very suspicious of any “conspiracy theories” myself, but the 18 of our fighters that were poisoned with chemical weapons at their positions in Semyonovka, the executions of the militiamen’s family members and all other “small joys of Ukie patriots” have convinced me that the Ukrainian government is capable of any villainy.
The pilots were, of course, perfectly alive – the entire cabin (and the front part is well preserved) was literally bathed in their blood.
#8 – Ukrainian Military Reports to Poroshenko That Rebels Have Not Captured any BUKs
According to Vitaliy Yarema, in an interview to Ukrainskaya Pravda, military officials reported to President Poroshenko immediately after the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777, Flight MH17, that the rebels have not captured any BUK systems from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is further confirmed in a statement by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, published on June 30, 2014.
Further Information: “Militias do not have Ukrainian Buk missile system – Ukraine general prosecutor“
KIEV, July 18. /ITAR-TASS/. Militias in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics do not have Ukrainian air defense missile systems Buk and S-300 at their disposal, Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Vitaly Yarema told Ukrainian Pravda newspaper on Friday.
“After the passenger airliner was downed, the military reported to the president that terrorists do not have our air defense missile systems Buk and S-300,” the general prosecutor said. “These weapons were not seized,” he added.
Ukrainian Interior Minister Anton Gerashchenko said on July 17 that the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 airliner had been downed by an air defense missile system Buk.
The Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 airliner on the way from the Dutch city of Amsterdam to the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur crashed in Ukraine on Thursday. All 298 people abroad the airliner died in the crash.
#7 – Eyewitness States Two Planes Following MH17, One Of the Craft Shot Down Boeing
Video: Father of Eyewitness Tells of the Crash of Boeing MH17 Over Ukraine
Transcript of the Video
Narrator: Who shot it down? Today it was shot down, on [July] 17th.
Narrator: Continuing. The village of Grabovo. How was it? What did you son tell you?
Father of Eyewitness: Well, they were sitting there, on a hill. And, from behind the clouds … two airplanes were flying … one of the came out from behind the clouds.
Narrator: Military planes emerged?
Father of Eyewitness: Well, he does not understand. Then, with one shot, they shot down the second. And that’s it. The second plane, he says – with one shot. There was one shot and that’s it.
Narrator: And the one that was shot down was the civilian one? …
Father of Eyewitness: And two … one fell down, he says, and the second too … I did not bring my phone here, so I can’t call him.
[in the background] Ah, he saw a jet fighter … Of course …
Narrator: The village of Grabovo, in the Shakhtersk district. One the approaches to Grabovo, it fell. Keep looking for remains. Everything is burning. Aluminum has melted. All the casing.
#6 – Analysis from Anatolii Sharii
Video: The Tragedy of Boeing 777
Transcript of the Video
If we try to forget the shock that I, along with my beloved Netherlands, are currently experiencing over this tragedy, and try to make sense of this situation unemotionally, as much as it can be possible, then the very first steps of the analysis of the fate of this flight inspire very terrifying, saddening thoughts.
A Ukrainian journalist, Olga Bondarenko, identified this information and the two of us, as we are together at the moment, came to certain conclusions. The following is provided to you without commentary.
[the following is screen text]
The flight path for July 15, 2014
The flight path for July 16, 2014
How it flew on July 17, 2014
Here is where it was shot down
Let us overlay the flight path onto the map of Ukraine
This is the regular flight path
The flight path on July 17, 2014
The deviation from the regular flight path
An unidentified flying object enters the area where they should be no aircraft
Who shot down the Boeing?
#5 – Video Material From the Site of MH17 Crash via LifeNews
Video: Exclusive Footage from the Site of Boeing’s Crash
#4 – Possible Alternative Video of MH17, Right Wing on Fire (via Vaughan Fomularo)
UPDATE: Dann Peroni (@roamer43) The video “#4 – Possible Alternative Video of MH17, Right Wing on Fire (via Vaughan Fomularo)” shows a clear blue sky, while in all other videos showing the crash site the sky is overcast!
Video: Malaysian Airlines plane being shot down LIVE! (July 17 2014)
#3 – Examining the Tickets and the Passports of Passengers of Flight MH17
Passports are hole-punched – this is what is done to passports when they are cancelled.
— Татьяна Кузьмина (@nika4888) July 18, 2014
#2 – Comparing the Form of the Wing in the Video with the Wings of Boeing
#1 – Video Purporting to be that of MH17 is Actually the Video of An-26 Shot Down Earlier