Analysis, Situational Report

Military Analysis: Ukraine Poised to Attack the Donbass


Artillery attack by Ukrainian force on June 3, 2015—Sokol Market, Tekstilshiki District, Donetsk, DPR (photo by Graham W. Phillips)

Preamble: The following analysis was provided to us by an individual with intimate understanding of the conflict, whose insight is derived from detailed data of troop movements collected in May 2015. In view of the sharp escalation of the conflict in the Donbass on June 2-4, 2015, we are now publishing this information, unabridged. Our hope is that the Ukrainian assault projected in the analysis below can be averted, or, at the very least, repulsed and mitigated. Please note that the images below can be clicked to zoom for easier reading.



7 thoughts on “Military Analysis: Ukraine Poised to Attack the Donbass

  1. Reblogged this on susannapanevin.


    Posted by susannapanevin | Jun 4, 2015, 07:10
  2. Reblogged this on gerryhiles.


    Posted by gerryhiles | Jun 4, 2015, 12:01
  3. I hope that the defenders of Dnbass are aware of all of this and will not be trapped but (for what it is worth) here is my take on the whole situation.

    The Junta in Kiev and the Washington Empire are analogs.

    Both are on their last legs economically and militarily, so both (one and the same thing, e.g. Nuland) will do anything to survive, such as the Samson Option of bringing everything down, rather than lose even a single cent.

    But there’s the rub.

    It is all about money and it is a race to the bottom about who controls the money supply – ultimately the Rothschild Dynasty presumably.

    An emerging consensus – even amongst some Western MSM – is that the entire financial/banking system is due for collapse around September of this year.

    If this turns out to be fact, then all military operations of the Empire of Chaos and the Kiev satrap are off and we can all rest in peace, but the wild card is that we are not dealing with rational players like Putin and Lavrov, we are dealing with arguably insane rulers of the World, with Porky and Yats being just small fry.

    I wish that I knew how things will turn out, but all I can say is, “May you be cursed to live during interesting times (like none before).”


    Posted by gerryhiles | Jun 4, 2015, 12:58
  4. The Ukrainian Army is on its 4th if not 5th conscription. These soldiers are not professional, although the US and Britain in particularly have spent several months instructing. Therefore they are fresh for the most part….bearing in mind that most of the Ukrainians earlier forces are spread around the fields of the Donbass from last years fiasco’s. Tremendous losses that benefitted the NAF. However these past months have been used by the US …as before….to rearm and retrain with what is about to happen in mind all along. There never was any intention of agree or implementing the Minsk agreements. If indeed conflct is to happen once again then the NAF need to inflict such heavy losses on the Ukrainian Army that will cause them to retreat, as per Cauldron in 2014, and as per Debaltsevo in 2015. In such a manner further conscriptions can be avoided…..they will have no more troops…..including mercenaries…to throw at Donbass…..even with the best will in the world ….a lack of troops means you are finished…… To conscript more peoples would take more time and critically slow the war machine to a standstill. The US will throw everything it has at the NAF be assured of that.. It is essentially a last stand and they will puch the Ukie army to go for broke when…..and not if….the main attack comes. Слава Донбассy


    Posted by Martin | Jun 4, 2015, 17:43
    • The last conscription didn’t net enough people to replace those who were being demobilized. So the ones demobilized didn’t get 50 feet before a new draft notice was pressed on them. They’re not going to be happy campers. Most of those drafted at gunpoint just shrugged when they were caught and resolved to watch for the first chance to surrender. Remember that video of the fat balding guy on the phone with his hysterical wife? “Darling, it’s all right, don’t cry, calm down, everything’s okay, I’m in captivity.” Even then, the soldiers, and their wives, knew being captured by the militia was a good outcome.

      Now it’s going to be really hard to draft someone, when they have to hunt them down in foreign countries!


      Posted by Cass | Jun 20, 2015, 09:32


  1. Pingback: Military Analysis: Ukraine Poised to Attack the Donbass | Piotr Bein's blog = blog Piotra Beina - Jun 4, 2015

  2. Pingback: #UKR Update – 041215UTC June 2015 | Blog - Jun 4, 2015

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