Situation Analysis and Comment—British Military Consultant, July 15-16, 2014

Preamble: John Kohchang is ex-British Army. Here, he offers some brief considerations based on his sixteen years service in the British Army, and seven years as a private military contractor.

Authored by John Kohchang / Editing by @GBabeuf & S. Naylor

ANALYSIS:

RIGHT SECTOR EQUIPMENT and TRAINING:

It looks as if NATO equipment is flowing to Right Sector troops—from German and Polish Kevlar vests and helmets, to night vision goggles (NVGs) and thermal optics, ready meals (MRE), even battle dress uniform (BDU) from many NATO member states. This logistical support does not turn these troops into soldiers, but a few weeks of training does give them a start.

The number of Right Sector thugs who attended NATO training courses in Poland and Lithuania was small—in the low thousands (http://tonyseed.wordpress.com/2014/03/08/nato-trained-ukrainianfifth-column/); but these were the core element of the Maidan Coup. Now that they have moved into full combat operations these poorly trained troops have demonstrated their limitations. A two to three week course does not turn thugs into professional soldiers. The British military has been doing this forever and the minimum time that it takes to train a basic infantry-man to a basic standard is six months (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recruit_training).

The UA has mixed these ‘fanatics’ in with their own regular and conscript troops, and this has had a dramatic effect on overall combat capability. Such troops are okay at storming vehicle check points (VCPs) and intimidating civilians; but when they have come up against the Militia, who stand and fight, they have come off second best, and it is only the material superiority in air and armour that has allowed them to prevail in some cases.

SELF DEFENSE FORCES TACTICS:

The Self-Defence forces (SDF) have employed Soviet partisan tactics from World War Two and the efficiency with which they have hit the rear echelon/logistics has been a real surprise to me. US advisers and the UA general headquarters (GHQ) underestimated the SDF, imagining them to be nothing more than a lightly armed and disorganised rag-tag band. But following a perfectly executed retreat and fighting withdrawal from Slavyansk (leaving behind saboteurs and executing a brilliant armoured diversionary attack) the UA has been left in shock and panic has set in.

The thrust to cut the SDF off from the Russian border (http://voicesevas.ru/img/23a3b0c9108d1239b86ceabfef6722d9.png)gave Strelkov (a student of history and a re-enactment enthusiast as well as a combat veteran, of Colonel rank) a perfect opportunity to re-employ tactics from The Winter War (http://www.winterwar.com/Tactics/mottis.htm#creation); to attack and ‘chop wood’—that is, to cut off piecemeal, surround, and then wipe out Ukie columns at the SDF’s discretion. This has caused panic and forced the enemy to retreat (https://slavyangrad.wordpress.com/2014/07/13/ivano-frankovsk-soldiers-tell-the-truthjuly-12-2014/).

FUTURE OPERATIONS:

If Kiev succeeds in retreating (I believe they will, as the SDF does not have the manpower to close all the traps), it will be to established bases in order to consolidate their forces. The US and NATO will be stepping up the training teams and advisers in Ukraine, as the ATO needs to succeed within a very short time span. The longer things go on like this, the more Ukrainians will be suffering under price increases (food/gas/electricity/petrol), as all government subsidies are stopped in order to comply with IMF restrictions. Missing loved ones cannot be hidden forever. People will begin turning on Poroshenko and his ‘government’; even the Rand Corporation stated in their leaked memo that operations needed to be concluded by September.

I believe we will see new commanders being installed at Staff level and heads rolling at Brigade/Division level as the fallout hits commanders involved in the South East débâcle. Slavyansk is the only real ‘victory’ the UA can claim, but their treatment of the citizens, mass-arrests of the police and forced penal battalions will only backfire and turn more people against Kiev. And even here, the Novorossiya Armed Forces (NAF) managed a perfectly executed retreat.

I think it will come down to attrition in the next month or so, as the UA will pull back, consolidate, and utilize their air and artillery. Again, this will not play out well in the hearts and minds of the citizens of Donbass; shelling homes and killing women and children will turn even the most ardent pacifist into a revenge-seeking partisan. This is where the information war is of paramount importance, and we can all assist in getting the truth out.

I honestly think the Kiev junta will use private military companies (PMCs), and Polish and Lithuanian regular troops in greater numbers. If the militia can capture or gain real, tangible evidence of the involvement of these foreign mercenaries and disseminate it on Russian TV and the internet, this—along with videos of destroyed homes and dead civilians—will all tell against the Kiev/US regime.

RUSSIA—STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS:

Russia needs to stay out and not be drawn into an overt invasion. Look for the provocations against Russia to increase, and, as America needs Putin to attack, real sanctions may now be implemented. Hopefully the EU will tell the Empire to f*** off; however, I doubt they will as our leaders are puppets of the USA. Through the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) , Brzezinski’s coup has been in the works for years (http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-eurasian-chessboard-brzezinski-mapped-out-the-battle-forukraine-in-1997/5373707)and has now reached a critical stage (http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_07_04/Brzezinski-calls-to-isolate-Russia-urges-US-to-arm-Ukrainianmilitary-0295/; http://blogs.cfr.org/davidson/2014/06/19/putin-brzezinski-anddeterrence-101/).

“Igor Strelkov: The Militia’s engaged in constant, uninterrupted fighting. At this moment in time, very heavy battles are ongoing near Lugansk. There the enemy’s concentrated enormous, overwhelming forces. According to our estimates, over seventy tanks are operating against us, or, rather, against our comrades in Lugansk, in that region.” (http://wp.me/p4KUOt-dA)

1. The Militia cannot afford to engage in pitched battles. Holding actions, such as static vehicle check points (VCPs), are futile: they allow the Ukies to utilize their air power and armour on well reconnoitered positions (either by special forces [SF] reconnaissance patrols/satellites or drone/air reconnaissance), giving them the opportunity to engage at a time of their choosing and with overwhelming superiority. Using covert observation points (OPs) to monitor the main supply routes (MSR), and roving, mobile, snap VCPs, gives the Militia the ability to monitor the MSR and deny their use to the enemy at a time and place of his choosing, and makes it more difficult for the enemy to locate you than with the overt VCPs still in use by the Militia.

2. The Militia need to keep a life-line with Russia open at all costs, but, again, holding static defensive positions against an enemy with control of the airspace is nigh on impossible with only Man Portable Air Defence Systems (MANPADS) as air-defence. If Russia is still playing the ‘we-are-not-involved’ routine then South Ossetia or Crimea could provide some (as stolen or perhaps as AWOL). One hundred and eighty-nine Ukie military bases were taken over in Crimea. Of these, the 55th Air Defence regiment at Yevpatoriya and 50th regiment at Feodosia had S-300 and Buk-M1 weapons systems. Is this wishful thinking…? I do not know how porous the Crimean border is but we have witnessed one 9K35 Strela-10 (SA-13 Gopher) in Militia hands: where did it come from?