The Minsk “Ceasefire” Protocol and Russian Diplomacy’s Masterful “Sabotage”
If Flaubert achieved for me his acme with three or four simple words “She pretended to think,” Saker reached his peak with this marvellous description of the politically and diplomatically atrocious “Minsk ceasefire protocol“: “Knowing the degree to which Russian diplomats are normally maniacally fastidious and pedantic with words, I can only conclude that they have deliberately sabotaged this agreement and that it’s sole use what to deflate the bellicose mood of the NATO summit.” (Link to the original article at The Vineyard of the Saker)
In other words, the implementation of Putin’s 7-point initiative was written so poorly and badly that Saker concluded not only that it must have been written by Russian diplomats, but that Russian diplomats must have composed the Minsk Protocol so terribly on purpose. For how could someone comparatively intelligent and reasonably well educated produce something so horrible and awful? One does not make something so bad by mistake. One has to be a master to be able to do that.
And why would Russian diplomats deliberately sabotage the document and made it so poor and thus making themselves appear as bad as the document they made? According to Saker, this was not because they had any intention to sabotage Novorossiya or its struggle, but because they wanted to sabotage “the bellicose mood” of NATO by appeasing NATO and its bellicosity with the sabotage of the ceasefire agreement.
And why exactly would NATO, receiving such awful provisions for Novorossiya, find its “bellicose mood deflated”? Because of being in awe of the horrible work of the Russian diplomats? Or just being stunned by it? Or because in some way this sabotage made their “bellicose mood” much happier and relaxed?
So does this mean that we have at last found the secret for deflating NATO and its aggressiveness–by sabotaging our own work, by promising to keep Novorossiya dissolved into several “special regions” for which the Nazis might at some point write their “Law” and run their “new elections”? Is it really by sabotaging genuine peace and actual principles that friends of Russia and Putin can appease, deflate and defeat NATO’s intelligence and plans, which were decades in making, as Avakov said the other night?
Does this mean that the worse their work Russian diplomats do, the more they “sabotage,” the more NATO will be deflated and the better and more effective Russian diplomacy is actually going to be?
I am just simply getting overwhelmed. So, in a situation like this, I think I need a drink or one or two. And after few more drinks, I must start to understand at last that the best strategy, writing, and thought, when it comes to such serious matters as the fate of Novorossiya and Russia, might be, as Saker teaches, that very bad and awful is better and even good!
Drunken with tears,
Yours Vlad, Czechmate
The Divinity of Omniscient Teenagers
When one feels omniscient, then even one’s blunders must appear to be a stroke of a genius.
Of course, we knew that the Kiev regime would use the teenagers’ ceasefire “just to regroup again” so that we can advance against a stronger and better armed enemy even further. Every single mistake or miscalculation we make is not just deliberate, it is also omniscient in a sense of being conscious of being no mistake, but unfathomably clever and smart.
Thus when we seem to act like a teenager, that’s when we are becoming nearly divine. The assumed ceasefire was ingenuous, indeed: we assured the enemy that we are stopping our offensive, while we knew all along that the enemy will be violating the ceasefire anyway, knowing that we will not make a move until he really hits us very hard.
So giving the enemy a free hand in attacking and choosing how and how much to freely violate the one-sided ceasefire, we have confirmed our genius by telling ourselves that we knew all this before anyway. We even know all our blunders beforehand–well, except that our omniscience would never allow us to call blunders blunders. No genius can do that to oneself.
The Revolutionary Manifest of Novorossiya
Alexey Mozgovoy, commander of the Prizrak Brigade and a key political leader of Novorossiya, issued on September 8 an “Address to ‘Volnye’ People.” It is a revolutionary declaration. It is the revolutionary manifest of Новороссия/Novorossiya.
The address was made as a reaction to the forcible removal of Igor Strelkov as Novorossiya’s commander in chief and to the Minsk “truce” (trusov – cowards’ in Russian) agreement which the current leaders of the two people’s republics were to sign with Leonid Kuchma, the godfather of Ukraine’s oligarchic elite, who is, otherwise, in his retirement today merely a private person. Still Kuchma was till 2004 one of the key movers who played a great role in bringing Ukraine into the hands of new Banderites united with the Ukrainian oligarchs.
With respect to the term “volniye lyudi” used by Alexey Mozgovoy. Literally, it means “free people.” But it can also be rendered as “volunteers” or those who are of their own free will on the side of Novorossiya—and now we can also say the revolution, which Novorossiya embodies. Thus, volniye lyudi are not only free people, they are also those who fight for Novorossiya freely and for free—without compulsion and without having to be paid to do so for they are mature and committed lovers of freedom and freedom fighters who have risen up against oligarchs and their Nazis.
They fight for out of love—out of love for the common good.
Now the essence of Mozgovoy’s Address, which is nothing less than a declaration of revolution and Novorossiya itself as a revolution:
1. The signing of the “Minsk Protocol about Truce” was an act of treason. The leaders of the people’s republics who signed it must resign.
2. 90% of the people of Novorossiya and 100% of the Army of Novorossiya are against the Truce Protocol and the conditions (of surrender) which the Protocol contains.
3. Ceasefire does not exist. There is no peace. The alleged ceasefire is farce.
4. Kuchma’s signature means nothing. That also means that the Kiev junta itself did not actually sign anything. Only the two leaders of the people’s republics took unilaterally certain obligations on behalf of the people’s republics, usurping and abusing their positions to do so.
5. In creating and signing the Protocol (resembling the Munich Deal of 1938), the given leadership had no interest in asking those, the soldiers and the people of Novorossiya, who fight for the right to be free and to have their will respected, what they think.
6. The battle has to be carried to its victorious end. There is no other way.
7. Oligarchic power in Ukraine must be destroyed
8. No “special status” for Novorossiya, as stated in the Minsk Protocol, within a “united,” “indivisible,” Nazi, Banderite, oligarchic Ukraine! Novorossiya already has its special status—it is its vision of a dignified, just society. Society based on narodovlastiye—power and freedom of the working people!
9. To this effect, the Military Council of Novorossiya must be convened as soon as possible. Its task is to reaffirm the unity of Novorossiya and the continuation of its revolutionary program.
10. We all need to be united! The separate people’s republics must finally form one strong united state of Novorossiya. Only in this way, victory can be achieved.
11. Novorossiya does not need those who sold themselves and who want to sell Novorossiya.
12. Novorossiya and her revolution is a struggle for our honor, dignity, and justice. That’s what we are fighting for. Let it honour with freedom or death!
13. Honor belongs to those who win it!
14. Victory will be ours!
I don’t agree with that (The Minsk “Ceasefire” Protocol and Russian Diplomacy’s Masterful “Sabotage”) . It hasn’t been spun that way in the western media, it is taken seriously & by Lavrov.
Reblogged this on civilizationchanges and commented:
what will become of people fighting for freedom if abandoned now, freedom isn’t cheap, it needs constant vigilance against corporate pirates and small fry treacherous profiteers.
To follow up, the only way out of it ‘as I see it’ is the Ukrainians launch some massive offensive to finish it all off, otherwise Putin will slowly turn off the supply tap to make it impossible for NAF to relaunch their offensive for lack of Grad missiles, Arty shells etc. Russian President website recently posted an odd announcement by Medvedev that they are dissolving the two ministries which are responsible for all supplies to Russian military. Was #naf getting it’s supplies through some backdoor channel behind Putin’s back? Don’t know what it means actually, but very odd timing.
Hope no one believes that crap about the naf ‘finding’ supplies by retreating ato forces, there volume of grad and artillery fire has been WAY to high for that. So the question is how did they get the rounds, some nationalist generals hidden in the food chain? Or Bro. Putin. Time will tell.
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Why is that hard for you to believe? Every guerrilla has been fought that way. NLF units would get one rifle. It was called the Mother Rifle.
You surround a unit and tell them you’ll give them a “humanitarian corridor” out, but only if they abandon their materiel unsabotaged. Poroshenko himself said they had lost 2/3 of their military equipment. Do you not think that at least some of that was not totalled?
Militia/NAF suffered for months for lack of anti-tank weapons. So where was Russia?
You are failing to factor in the morale of the Ukrainian fighting force. It is made up of untrained bully boys who prefer to fight civilians, particularly elderly ones, and couch potato conscripts who faced heavy jail terms if they evade the draft.
There are a few dimensions of the issue that may have been overlooked.
First what happens if Novorossiya goes to Kiev? Do we get a neo-nazi guerilla à la Baghdad? The consequences must be carefully weighted to avoid a blunder.
Second the economic and energetic (natural gas) problems of Ukraine are very bad.
Third Russia reminded NATO of the nukes and held exercises to drive home the point.
Fourth, I saw a comment on Saker observing that the 12 points plan is nearly identical with a plan Porochenko proposed in July. I can’t read Russian so I can’t verify this. But I think someone should verify if this is true and post a side by side comparison.
There is a scenario that explains why the ceasefire is this bad without resorting to treason. The Kremlin feared that NATO was about to provoke a direct confrontation risking nuclear war. They defused the threat by agreeing to an unworkable plan nearly identical to Porochenko’s. It is hard for NATO to dismiss a plan designed mostly by their ally. That would explain why the terms are this bad. They don’t expect the plan to be implemented.
I don’t know if this scenario is the correct one. It is just an hypothesis. But it makes more sense than treason because it is plain obvious that the militia will never agree to these terms. When the traitors are this well-placed they can do something much more lethal that sign an unimplementable protocol.
The costs of this approach are high but not catastrophically high. A military victory now is not sufficient to solve the Bandera nazi problem. It is better to wait for the Ukraine government to collapse under the economic and energetic pressure and let the nazis take power. They won’t be able to solve the economic and energetic problems and will discredit themselves. Only then it will be possible to march on Kiev and get rid of the nazis without being trapped in a prolonged guerrilla fight.
This path implies a long protracted war and lots of suffering for Novorossiya and Ukraine. But it seems to be the best hope for a permanent solution.
I agree it doesn’t need to be called treason. No point in increasing the hatred. The Novorossiyan signatories might have been under a lot of pressure to sign, and didn’t have time to realize they were being tricked. After all, the agreement by the time it reached Minsk, and I don’t know what happened in the mean time, was a lot different from the agreement Putin said he had in mind, which gave substantial autonomy to Donbass. And yes, I remember Poroshenko’s earlier plan, and this one sounds almost exactly like it. I do want to add that I received an email from the OSCE telling me personally that that organization was promoting Poroshenko’s peace plan. Maybe sort of a bait and switch?
I agree with your comments and analysis of the ‘complex’ process Novorossiya is going through, and take your conclusive remarks as correct. While very profoundly sympathizing with Commander Mozgovoy’s manifesto and seeing he has all the right to say what he says and speak up his mind&heart, one has to accept that things in ‘real life’ are usually against the grain of noble ideals like Mozgovoy’s. Moreover, lets see how things evolve over the following weeks/months. And above all, do not let your enemies see that there any divisions or confrontations on your side. Let’s just leave aside such strong words as “treason”, sabotage, betrayal… Shall we find strength in our ideals and be reassured they will in the end prevail, against evil and all practical odds.
The post of “the other Paul” is right up with wath I also think .
1 ) the FAN don’t have the military power to conquier much more territory
2 ) the ceasefire wil put the responsability on Kiev when they will start their new offensive
and then will disarm the US and EU for new sanctions and bellicism
3 ) Kiev should collapse on it’s own this winter
Si it is important that the FAN resist the next kievian offensive , and keep the faith :
all people concern by thruth and justice are supporting them , like the 300 spartiates
that kept the persian empire out of Greece !
Force et Honneur
The analysis of the Protocol of the Ceasefire by Alexander Mercouri on the Saker’s site takes into account matters which have been ignored here. Rather than my attempting to summarize them it wd be much better for you to read his analysis. I do think that he answers satisfactorily all the points raised here. The surface meaning which has so many speaking of ‘betrayal’ is quite overcome by more subtle meanings. Please look at the his analysis.
Regarding the first section of the article, I wouldn’t be fooled by any of Saker’s analyses. He thinks freely, trying to stir up ideas. They make interesting reading, and can be very thought provoking. But don’t let it influence you if you don’t agree with it.
I agree. Personally, I have the idea that if Saker ever decides to change his direction and pursue “creative fiction”, then he’ll be in his true element …
Reblogged this on gingerblokeblog.
The shame of the human race | vgiannelakis
Because there is a lot of talk and misunderstanding about the actual reasons of the Ukraine civil war, let’s put a few things clear about what has been happening.
1. There is not such thing as bad oligarchs (USA) dumb oligarchs (EU) and good and clever oligarchs (Russia) and their public face (Obama, Hollande and Putin). All of them are in the same game, squeeze peoples works in their own benefit.
2. Why the Ukraine oligarchs have been taking side with the western oligarchs?
Very easy, the western oligarchs rule the system, they own the IMF, Financial system (SWIFT, VISA….), Internet, Sea lines, Food industry…..
Russia oligarchs and Russia state is just collateral to the system. They don’t have any weight in the real centers of power IMF, World Bank. Russia by any advance capitalist standards (USA, Germany, japan and even China) is a backward country with backward infrastructure and technology, production system. The space program and military hardware are just a drop in the ocean.
3. Why the oligarchs use fascist gangs to take the power?
The EU Oligarchs need them to squeeze the working population after they take Ukraine assets for free (Steel mills, shipyards, coal mines, crops…..) to have profits in world market with shrinking profits. The USA oligarchs need them for the same and to have a cheap militar control over the population for the future military installations.
4. What happened just after the oligarch and fascist cup?
A huge popular rebellion against this complot, Odessa, Jarkov and Donbass have been witness of a huge popular uprising against such plan, this was a rebellion of the people for the people. Due the lack of political and military leadership the rebellion was suppress in most of the country but not in Lugansk and Donets.
Together with this rebellion, Russia took advantage of the anarchical situation in Ukraine post cup to take back Crimea with the support of the Crimean population.
5. Even though the bravery and military skills of the Eastern Ukraine people, the lack of political leadership in Lugansk and Donets with clear economic and political goals persists and is a drag in their struggle, what makes this regions and their people a very easy target for Russia oligarch’s opportunism and Ukraine oligarch deceived tactics.
6. Now the Ukraine army, fascist gangs, EU, USA and Ukraine oligarchs have learn their lesson, they smell the danger of what a defeat can means for them. They are more united and willing to achieve victory than ever, of course the army and fascist gangs want more money in exchange for their sacrifices.
7. The EU and USA will resupply the Ukraine army and fascist gangs with new and better weapons, training and advisors. This is a civil war not a weekend picnic and they are willing to destroy and kill everything that is in front of their goals. Probably soldiers from Poland, Croatia, and Baltic states…. will fill the ranks of the Ukraine army, besides tanks and equipment and a new air force with planes from this countries will be created to achieve air superiority.
8. Ukraine oligarchs leadership (Poroshenko or other) will not fall no matter what hardships the Ukraine people has to support this winter whit or without Russian gas. It has to be overthrow.
9. The question is, What the Donbass rebellion leadership will do?
I cannot agree that there has been any treason by the DPR and LPR leaders. ALL conflicts come to a time when military actions has to be replaced by political process.
Having moved the Kiev’s forces away from Lugansk and Donetsk and then agreeing to the ceasefire the Novorussia forces have shown the civillians of these areas that they are the protectors – to survive as an entity you need the civillians support. The ceasefire was essential.
The protocol is so open for interpretation : The removal of illegal armed formations from the territory of Ukraine. All that needs to be done is take the fighters out of uniform go do a day job and the armed formation has been removed without removing a single person – some of the army could always change from an army to police or similar civillian roles. (Military discipline can be maintained by forming re-enactedment societies.)
Playing the long game – At present the infrastructure is so damaged that as an independent state Novorussiya could not survive. Staying within the territory of Ukraine means that the area will be financially assisted internationally to aid recovery.
For any elections make sure that candidates supporting your cause are standing. This is where the political war can be won or lost. The civillians at the moment hate the current regime – this is the fastest way to extend your area of control.
Polls are showing that across the country the current political regime is losing support, now is the time for independent candidates to stand.
This is now the fastest way to defeat the current regime.
Some people are noting the Scottish referendum on independence to make a comparison to Novorussi what they do not realise is it has taken years of campaigning to get to this point and building up the support of the Scottish Nationalist Party.
This ceasefire should not be seen in anyway as surrender or defeat but rather the start of state building.
Also Poroshenko needs a ceasefire for the goverment elections to take place which is why Avakov and company are not happy about it because they know they will be kicked out of power!!!
You said, “ALL conflicts come to a time when military actions has to be replaced by political process.” Well, yes. Except this may not have been the right time or the right political process. Given that the NAF was winning, Zakharchenko could have bargained for a lot more, if he had carried a peace proposal of his own to the Minsk meeting. I guess he neglected to do that. Worse still, the meeting was overseen by the OSCE. Far from neutral, this organization officially stated in private correspondence a few weeks before the meeting that it was promoting the Peace Plan of none other than Poroshenko. So the OSCE had already taken sides. How much influence this had on the outcome I don’t know, but the ultimate agreement seemed a lot less favorable to Novorossiya than Putin’s original vision. So I would call this bad timing and a very inappropriate political process.
You said, “At present the infrastructure is so damaged that as an independent state Novorussiya could not survive. Staying within the territory of Ukraine means that the area will be financially assisted internationally to aid recovery.” I think Novorossiya could indeed survive as an independent state. I also think they are better off to handle their own recovery. It’s always dangerous to depend on international assistance, due to the inevitable strings attached.
I could see the ceasefire as a “start of state building” if Novorossiya had been given autonomy. How are they going to build anything if they’re under Poroshenko’s thumb?
The ceasefire should stand, for the sake of civilian lives. But Novorossiya should continue to bargain hard for independence or autonomy, through heavy media publicity, continuous official demands, public demonstrations of power and support, and international appeals. Meanwhile, the NAF should be ready for any Ukrainian ceasefire violations. As for the agreement itself, its legality should be challenged relentlessly, and Novorossiya should threaten to violate its terms on this basis.
‘The removal of illegal armed formations’ does not apply to the NAF. They are a PARTY to a conflict and a BILATERAL ceasefire has been signed by them with the Kiev govt. They have thus been RECOGNIZED (no longer illegal). This is one of the points in Alesander Mercouri’s analysis on the Saker’s site. Please read his analysis.
I am pretty surprised to see an attack on this. The saker said that the purpose may have been to have an existing “ceasefire agreement” precisely when 1)the OTAN summit was about to decide reaction vs Russia and 2) the Europeans were debating new sanctions. Obviously getting hardline decisions there was made difficult when the last headlines was that a peace plan was maybe starting. Discouraging peace progress is a tough sell.
Obviously Kiev found its interest in that and from the Novorossia’s perspective it’s more mixed up – despite some advantages to get a break the military tactical situation was in favour of a push. On a strategical level, it’s not as clear.
Anyway, things unfolded like he predicted:
– NATO didn’t take meaningful action
– EU sanctions are not escalating too much
– ceasefire was bs and isn’t held anyway
Which is very important. Let’s imagine for one second Kiev never ever intended to use a ceasefire for anything else than regrouping before more aggression. In that case this negotiations:
– resisted NATO
– resisted sanctions
– created a precedent for Kiev to negotiate with the Novorossia, ie recognise their governement as the de facto authority of the Dombass region
– presented a cooperative face
– all of this to practically no cost at all, except using time to regroup as well. No who has the biggest income in volunteer & gear those days, actually ?
I am a fanboy to no one but this specific post from the Saker strikes me as one efficient predictive analysis. We don’t get too much of those whether in the internet or in papers, tv etc. What he said happened. Now this doesn’t mean it’s true. Greeks had a pretty efficient predictive system regarding astronomy (more efficient than Galileo’s before it was way more refined) except that it was entirely false. So as usual, anything can go. Still, to this day, his analysis in this paper is way closer to the fact observers thereafter than most of what I’ve read elsewhere.
support Novorossia! Mail to email@example.com and find out how to!
I remain curious as to how large a role Russia played in the NAF victory over the military forces sent by Kiev. If Russia truly wants the fighting to end now, then I would assume it would withdraw its support to some extent, at least enough to hinder further major gains by the NAF. However, if this victory came about without a great deal of covert Russian support, then what is to stop the NAF from resuming the initiative, especially if, as many seem to believe, the Ukrainians have already gone through the bulk of their best equipment and soldiers?
One more question . . . besides this site and slavyangrad.org, can anyone recommend other sites where it is possible to get current information and news of Ukraine? The western news services are only propaganda these days.
Sorry, I meant to say besides this site and the Vinyard of the Saker . . .
Getting good info a real problem. Even rt.com doesn’t really keep you in touch. Sometimes you can get instant update by using Twitter. You don’t have to sign up. Do an advance search on anything you’re curious about. Lots of links there. The quality varies, but what else is there?
I forgot to mention, there is another website with current information about Novorossiya. Google “global research”, or try:
I found another website with updates on Novorossiya:
On your first point, there’s nothing to stop the NAF from resuming the initiative. I don’t think they were all that dependent on Russia.
For other news sources on Ukraine: Niqnaq. wordpress has an article if-strelkov-did-return. I’m not sure if it’s that one or associated ones, but there’s info on the particular Russian factions, financial relationships.
‘Michael Hudson economist’gives the nitty gritty on the financial shenanigans, how these people are hooked into the West.
Of course ‘Slavyangrad’
I think there’s a blog called Russophile that I haven’t looked at yet.
Off topic. Intense shelling and gunfire just started in Donetsk, wee morning hours of Sept 11. Also the Supreme Councel of the DNR may have rejected the Ceasefire Agreement as of Sept 10. See
I think Dr Suchan in underwhelmed, not overwhelmed.
in –> is
YES THEY CAN TRANSFORM NORMAL MODERATE PEOPLE IN ENRAGED DOGS!!!!!!!
“Do not try to understand”said the Girl driving the car.”War is on in Novorossiya.War is between the Media,War is the Youth of Europe who more and more engage on One side or the Other.The War is furiously raging on the Internet, Cyber War and the War of Information tracking, Personal Data and manipulating opinions.You adore the Bling? Take a Smart Watch so that we can GPS your position when you’re taking a dump.War is raging in families,between brothers .A new Wall of Shame is being built to separate 2 Slavic Races,a Wall built by the Western Democratically Oriented Ukraine,an answer by the remodeled looking Fascist Junta empowered in Kiev.”
But the Girl driving the car was right.It is War and when at War you don’t have time to explain…you choose a Camp and the Following Article is a reflection of What I Think.Exactly How I Think and my Camp is Novorossiya whatever the result of the Conflict. And we will think about women, car races and astronomy after the war. We hope we will conserve some humanity after the war. BUT IT IS NOT IMPORTANT WHAT IS IMPORTANT IS TO WIN THE WAR, TOTAL WAR IS IN ME AND I WILL GET RID OF THIS NASTINESS AFTER THE WAR
It is only War. ANTON KOMAROV
Ever seen Braveheart? Same old story. The true hearted boys put their lives on the line and shed their blood for freedom on the battlefield. Meanwhile, the cowardly and traitorous politicians sell them down the river, even though they were winning.
So much for movies. In real life, see my comment below.
It appears that Radio Free Europe is operating in Ukraine and is urging people to believe that everything will be great after WWIII– when Russia will be defeated and cut up into pieces: Ukraine will get a piece; so will Finland, etc., etc. No mention of radiation or nukes.
See ‘Redrawing the Map of the Russian Federation: Partitioning Russia After World War III?’
You know all this busines of trying to convince Europe that ‘Russia is not really a threat. It’s not necessary to confront her militarily, and it’s safe to increase economic integration.’ All of this business is a load of BS. EU knows darn well who the aggressor is– cuz they are united with the US in their NWO global oligarchy plan. EU is just playing Russia off with the good-cop/bad-cop routine. It’s meant to create cognitive dissonance to prevent groups of people from coalescing around a plan of action. Europe is forever sending signals that they don’t WANT to be using sanctions. . . .
NUTS! 28 unanimous votes for each batch.
Some of you should your refresh your memory on some of Alexey Mozgovoy’s other statements. He was insisting last summer that an offensive was not possible. He described his long-range strategy as avoiding losing any men so he would have a powerful force loyal to him when they time came to form a government.
This after-the-fact shedding of crocodile tears is a cynical political maneuver.